You hold ♠ 7 ♥ AJ8532 ♦ K432 ♣ 62. Playing matchpoints, you make the indiscreet overcall of 2♥ after RHO opens 1♠ at both non-vulnerable. LHO makes a single raise, partner passes, and LHO bids game, which is passed out.
What do you lead? This is the situation Vinoth was in (spots approximated) in last week's Mylapore game. Think about it before reading the answer below.
GIB recommends ♥ A at both IMPs and MPs, with the following analysis.
At MPs:
HA: -311.24 -> 0.44
C6: -315.38 -> 0.41
S7: -338.42 -> 0.31
D4: -340.90 -> 0.28
C2: -315.38 -> 0.16
H5: -350.84 -> 0.15
H3: -350.84 -> 0.15
H8: -352.66 -> 0.15
HJ: -354.20 -> 0.12
DK: -363.06 -> -0.17
I play HA (187.67 sec)
At IMPs:
HA: -311.24 -> 1.11
C6: -315.38 -> 0.99
C2: -315.38 -> 0.69
S7: -338.42 -> 0.43
D4: -340.80 -> 0.36
H5: -356.40 -> -0.08
H3: -356.40 -> -0.08
H8: -358.28 -> -0.12
HJ: -359.82 -> -0.17
DK: -370.96 -> -0.74
Yes, you guessed it. Vinoth got it right. The contract goes down on a club lead or on a club switch at the second trick. Vinoth didn't make the switch, and the contract was made.
I hate GIB. Do you too?
6 comments:
I think 4S is cold in this board as the cards lie. Declarer had A K Q 10 x x in Spades(opposite 3 rags in dummy) and 2 rags in Clubs. Even if Vinoth switches to a Club, u can at most take !C Ace and !C King. If u return a third club, declarer can ruff it with 10 and draw trumps.
Declarer's Hand:
A K Q 10 x x
K Q x
x x
x x
Dummy:
x x x
x x
A Q x x x
Q x x
Diamond finnese is also working. So, only way to take it down is dont lead !H A.
Vinoth had K J 10 9 of Diamonds.
I have no idea about this GIB analysis though :)
4S seems to be an extremely optimistic call with that hand. I would have led the heart ace as well. The heart king is much more likely to be with partner or dummy than with declarer. While a club makes for an attacking lead, I would much rather see dummy before leading it for fear of breaking the suit for declarer.
I was under the impression that declarer had three clubs. I guess I was wrong.
I remember this one. 4S went down at our table -2, but it can be held to -1 on the D finesse. Guthi led a high diamond after psyching a 3H preempt, so declarer declined the finesse. He later had to play hearts himself. He couldn't ruff a heart in dummy as I held Jxx in trumps and could overruff dummy. So he lost two tricks in hearts and two in clubs (unavoidable) and one in diamonds (avoidable).
At our table, bidding was :
1S-2H-2S-3H
4S-P-P-Dbl
Since partner supported Hearts, i led Heart Ace. Then even i played !D J (like guthi) hoping that declarer won't take finnese and declarer rightly (for us) rejected the finnese and contract went down 1.(2C's, 1D and 1H)
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