Off to Beijing

We are leaving for the World Mind Sports games at Beijing tomorrow... there are 3 IITM players: Guthi, Vinoth and myself. In all there are 12 Junior players (U-26, which we are in, and U-28 teams), plus the Women's team and the Open team (the Formidables of course). There will be an additional two non-playing staff per team, and there is also a Chess contingent, so there will be plenty of Indian company there!

I will put up some short daily updates here if possible... perhaps even some interesting deals if I have the time :)

Wish us luck.

Cheers,
Prashanth.

Bidding Toughie

You're sitting fourth-seat, playing matchpoints, with ♠ KQ92 ♥ A2 ♦ KQJ92 ♣ 32, neither side vulnerable. Dealer opens with 3♣, which is passed around to you. What do you bid?

If you're thinking double, forget it. You don't have four hearts. That leaves pass, 3 ♦, and 3NT. What are the pros and cons of each bid?

I Hate GIB

You hold ♠ 7 ♥ AJ8532 ♦ K432 ♣ 62. Playing matchpoints, you make the indiscreet overcall of 2♥ after RHO opens 1♠ at both non-vulnerable. LHO makes a single raise, partner passes, and LHO bids game, which is passed out.

What do you lead? This is the situation Vinoth was in (spots approximated) in last week's Mylapore game. Think about it before reading the answer below.

GIB recommends ♥ A at both IMPs and MPs, with the following analysis.

At MPs:
HA: -311.24 -> 0.44
C6: -315.38 -> 0.41
S7: -338.42 -> 0.31
D4: -340.90 -> 0.28
C2: -315.38 -> 0.16
H5: -350.84 -> 0.15
H3: -350.84 -> 0.15
H8: -352.66 -> 0.15
HJ: -354.20 -> 0.12
DK: -363.06 -> -0.17
I play HA (187.67 sec)

At IMPs:
HA: -311.24 -> 1.11
C6: -315.38 -> 0.99
C2: -315.38 -> 0.69
S7: -338.42 -> 0.43
D4: -340.80 -> 0.36
H5: -356.40 -> -0.08
H3: -356.40 -> -0.08
H8: -358.28 -> -0.12
HJ: -359.82 -> -0.17
DK: -370.96 -> -0.74

Yes, you guessed it. Vinoth got it right. The contract goes down on a club lead or on a club switch at the second trick. Vinoth didn't make the switch, and the contract was made.

I hate GIB. Do you too?

Eight Never, Nine Ever?

You have to play this combination (the trump suit) for no loss:

AKJ76
5432

The rule “eight never, nine ever” asks you to eschew the finesse against the queen holding nine cards in the suit. You surely know that the correct play is to cash Ace and King, hoping to fell the queen, rather than to finesse against the queen on the second round.

But do you know how close the percentages are? Say you cash Ace, then lead low toward the KJ, and LHO produces a low club. At this point, the correct guess will lead to no loss in the suit. The chances of LHO holding the queen are about 48 %, which makes the two lines so close that the correct conclusion is not “nine ever”, but “other considerations rule”.

Let me give you an example. Suppose you and dummy have 24 HCP between you, and you landed in this contract after East had passed as dealer. If you simulate this situation, giving you and dummy a total of any 24 HCP and making sure East does not have 12 or more HCP, you find that the chances of the finesse succeeding are now up to 51 %, making it the better line.

The constraint imposed on the opposing cards was very mild. Of the 16 outstanding HCP, RHO could not hold 12 or more (which limit is 4 more than his average of 8), and that was enough to tip the scales in West's favour. In actual play, there are countless factors that tip the scales by similar amounts.

Hugh Kelsey states in some book that one must not despise the 3 % margin because gambling houses have grown fat on margins much smaller. His idea is preposterous. Gambling houses have the same slim margin (never higher) every single time someone bets, and they do despise 0.01 % margins (e.g. the dirtying of cards leading to an imperfect shuffle). The bridge player is typically dealing with percentages much higher than that through the bidding and play. I don't blame Kelsey, however, because no doubt that was marketing for the 4-volume treatise he was planning, Miscellaneous Throw-In Squeezes Against Both Opponents Involving Three Suits without an Entry To the Hand with Two Menaces

[Update: I just realized that the rule goes “eight ever, nine never”. In other words, it seeks to answer the question, Should I finesse against the queen. The way I've used it, it answers the question, Should I play for the drop?]

Suit Play problems - elementary?

Suit play problems are fun to solve when reading blog posts like this, but can be quite a nuisance at the table.

(1)
Take this for instance.

AK56

J97

What do you think the safety play for 3 tricks is?
The chances are about 83% for 3 tricks on one line (according to suitplay)

(2)
How do you play this combination for 4 tricks (safe play for 4 tricks)

A83

KJ954

Your aim should be to handle QTxx with either opponent. This appeared in one AR's column, and according to suit play his solution was wrong, in fact you don't have to consult suitplay to realise that he is wrong.

Hint: the case is close to playing

K854

AQ932

ok, not so close to that.

(3)

Another one which Ashok and Prajwal were arguing about is this

AKJ9543

5

is it the standard "5 never; 4 ever" ( with Q is outside, play for drop always when 4 cards and finesse when 5 cards are out side?)

Answers:

(1) - Cash the Ace and play low towards 9. cover if your RHO plays T. If he plays Q, you have your 3 tricks. If the 9 loses to Ten - now what? Should play for the suit to be 3-3 even if you have the other intermediate, like AK8x -opp- J9x

its similar to AK9x -opp- Jxx; at trick two if the jack loses to queen, don't finesse the 9. play for the drop.

(2) simple one - play King then low towards 8

(3) Yes, you have to finesse.


Adios,
guthi

Another entry puzzle

This hand from Positive Declarer Play by Reese and Pottage caught my eye. Like the last post, the key lies in finding a second entry to dummy, but thats where the similarity stops.


West opens 2H and you end up in 6S. The D6 is led. Plan your play.


Given the 2H opening, the D6 looks very suspiciously like a singleton. Not that ducking the lead would help you. It looks like your best bet is to pitch all your diamond losers on the hearts, conceding only the heart ace. Problem is, there is only one entry to dummy: the CQ. How to work around this pesky stumbling block?

I bet you were thinking, if only I could switch the CQ with one of the other club honours, then I can finesse the ten for an extra entry; if the diamond is indeed a singleton lead, it is probable that west has the CJ. But alas, the club is a queen.

Keep thinking on those lines. You're very close to the solution.

Have you got it yet? Win the DA, draw trumps, cash a high club and finesse the club ten. Now play a high heart jetissoning the remaining club honour. That leaves two top hearts and one top club in dummy for the diamond pitches. When west wins his heart ace, he has to return a heart or a club to dummy, providing you with that elusive entry!

Cheers
Prashanth.

Ottlik's Entry Squeeze

If you've read Adventures in Card Play by Geza Ottlik and Hugh Kelsey, you would be as awed by Ottlik's bridge outlook as I am. Here is an Ottlik hand demonstrating the "Entry Squeeze".


The contract is 6NT and the SJ is led. Can you think of a legitimate way (not based on deception or defensive error) to make 6, assuming you can read the opponents' card position correctly? The title is a huge hint.


The main problem appears to be a lack of entries to dummy to finesse the hearts twice. Assuming split honours, if the opponents are forced to discard in the heart suit, you may end up needing only one entry. For example, if RHO comes down to Hx, you can enter dummy, finesse once and cash the ace dropping the honour and getting an extra trick. If LHO comes down to Hx, then you lead low to the T. If he goes up, you need only one entry to finesse the J. If he ducks, you lose this trick but cash the ace dropping the honour next time. Either way, you need only one entry; so both opponents have to hold on to Hxx in hearts.

Ottlik won the lead with the SK and ran his clubs. On the last club he reached this position: (dummy pitches a heart)

We have already established that both opponents cannot afford to pitch any more hearts. East clearly cannot part with a diamond. But what about west? If he pitches a diamond, he will be exposed to an elimination play: cash diamonds and spades ending in dummy, then finesse the heart; west will have nothing but hearts to return. So he, too, must hang on to three carder diamond. Hence, both opponents pitch spades, which looks safe - superficially. But in reality the spade discards have generated an extra entry to dummy: overtake Q with A, finesse the hearts, then overtake 3 with 6, finesse again in hearts. They have been entry squeezed! Awesome!

Cheers,
Prashanth.

From The Desk of GIB

You reach a non-vulnerable 3NT in an uncontested auction (better not disclosed) after partner opens the bidding and are greeted by the lead of ♣ T. You discard a heart and your RHO plays ♣ Q. Plan the play.

Dummy
♠ Q94
♥ K9743
♦ A8753
♣ —

You
♠ A87532
♥ Q
♦ KQJ
♣ KJ3

GIB wins the first trick, cashes two top diamonds from hand, and, noticing the 3–2 break, overtakes the last diamond with ♦ A. Then GIB cashes the two good diamonds. LHO discards two clubs, while RHO discards two hearts and then a club. Now what?

The right play, according to GIB, is now to lead ♠ Q and run it, which—witnesses to this deal might remember—is what I did. I had in mind an avoidance play against RHO, which ultimately aims at setting up a spade trick.

In the actual layout, LHO wins with his singleton ♠ K and returns a heart to put the contract one down (double-dummy best defence).

Double-dummy 10 tricks are available at notrump if declarer plays a low spade to his ace after cashing all his diamonds, so GIB would go down (as did I). So go celebrate, all you double-dummy junkies.

(LHO's cards are ♠ K ♥ A65 ♦ T64 ♣ AT9642. RHO's cards are: ♠ JT6 ♥ JT82 ♦ Q875 ♣ 92.)

Xridge - Men

Scott Prashanth Summers (Cyclops) was trying to fight his distraction and concentrate on development of his mutant powers. He has been distracted by telepathic interaction with Jean X Gray. Cyclops looked at his partner Guthi Logan (Wolverine) his cards with his adamantium claws. The bidding was brisk until this point.

Cyclops held:

-Void-
AKT9xx
K8xx
Qxx

Bidding so far uncontested was (all non-vul)
1D-1H
2c-?

Cyclops was thinking, thought was his mentor Professor X would do at this situation. Then his thoughts wandered to Jean X Gray. Then he saw his partner wolverine's claws sharp edges. They were aching for some action. As though that was an inspiration, he called 6D. All said pass.

Analysis: The mutant pair is playing modified precision club. 1D opening promises no diamonds at all. But the 2C rebid confirms at least 9 cards in minors. If partner had 4Ds and 5Cs , its better to play in a 4-4D with the 5-3 as a potential source of tricks. If partner has 5Ds and 4Cs, there should be entries to cash those juicy hearts, which look rather easy to establish - entries being the only question. there could be two key cards missing, but is there a convenient way to ask for them?

How about a 4th suit force? If you are looking for a 3 carder heart, its not so useful as this partnership raises with three cards on unbalanced hands and tends to rebid 1NT with all balanced hands. 9 cards in the minors implies its not a balanced hand - so unlikely opener has 3 hearts. there is no point trying for a 6H, the short trump hand can't take the spade ruffs. So 4th suit force should be with an intention of setting diamonds as trump and investigating slam. Ok-a?

If you are a regular partner ship, and have agreements on void wood, its the best. I expect the auction to go like this: 1D-1H; 2C-2S; 2NT-3D; 3S* - showing spade king and (no heart honour?). Will you still push for a slam with that hand? Will 4S still be void wood? Confusing-a?


Q1) Do you agree with Cyclops's bid - the blast to 6D?
Q2) after 4sf and setting Ds as trump, in that sequence with 3-1-5-4 and spades and hearts being KJx and Q what will you respond over 3D ?
Q3) will 4S be void wood in that sequence? 1D-1H; 2C-2S; 2NT-3D; 3S*

The play:

-Void-
AKT9xx
K8xx
Qxx


KJx
x
AJTxx
A9xx

Lead: small Spade.

Quick analysis: Do not discard anything from dummy - you are in danger of losing a trump trick. just ruff the spade in dummy. Establishing hearts seems to be the best plan.
If hearts break 3-3 and trumps break 2-2; there are tricks all over the place. 5 trumps, two spade ruffs, 5 hearts and a club - 13 tricks.
If hearts break 3-3 and trumps break 3-1; you can still make 12 tricks and may be even 13 if the Q dropped and RHO has the 3 carder trump.
If hearts break-4-2 and trumps break 2-2; can make only 12 tricks; 5trumps + 2 spade ruffs + 4 hearts + 1 club. (don't consider Ace of spade dropping/being played on J)
If hearts break 4-2 and trumps break 3-1; most interesting case: Now the heart spots become important. The analysis of that will call for another post I think. So I leave it you junta!

Opener's hand - choice of rebid

Note the choice of rebid - there is a close call between 1NT and 2C. So far - Vinoth and Prajwal answered that they will rebid 1NT; SP, Ashok and I say 2C.
I think if you the rebid is 1NT, there should be methods to make sure partner doesn't push to heart game thinking there is at least a 2 carder with the opener.
Playing 2-way checkback there is a lot of advantage but can it address this problem?

PS: I hope you all got the references to X-Men characters.