Holding ♠ KT2 ♥ QT82 ♦ 874 ♣ AJ9, you find yourself on lead, after your LHO raised your RHO's vulnerable opening (standard) 2 NT to 3 NT. What do you lead?
Assuming that the play after the lead is made will be double-dummy, it's possible to determine by simulations the best lead. Make your choice before reading on.
The average IMPs scored per deal for various leads(compared with the other table, where the opening lead too was double-dummy) are, with 500 hands sampled: ♦ 7/♦ 8 = −1.28; ♦ 4 = −1.30; ♥ T = −1.60; ♥ 8 = −1.77; ♥ 2 = −1.78; ♥ Q = −1.88; ♠ T = −2.02; ♠ 2 = −2.19; ♣ J = −2.54; ♣ 9 = −2.62; ♠ K = −2.89; ♣ A = −3.01.
I'd say the results are somewhat surprising. Noteworthy is the fact that even with the best lead, you're giving away an expectation 1.28 IMPs. The hand given is from Frank Stewart's column for yesterday.
I hope to analyse “perfect leads” of this sort in a more systematic way and blog about it.
2 comments:
Nice post! Interesting analysis here. I want to know the constrains of sampled hands of responder. Is the responder denying a 4 card major (unless he is 4333)?
Yes, responder's hand shape is constrained. Less than four cards in both majors unless 4-3-3-3 and 10 HCP at most and not more than 6 cards in a minor. These constraints need not reflect the agreements/judgement of the players exactly, but they should be good enough.
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