It's your call after your partner bid 2NT (20–21 HCP) as dealer and your RHO passed. What do you do with ♠ 98 ♥ T6 ♦ AT962 ♣ 8743? (That was the Level 1 bidding question on BridgeClues on 14 June.)
Let's say your choices are limited to raising to 3NT and passing. What is the expectation gain (in IMPs) for bidding 3NT over passing, assuming whatever you do will end the auction? Estimate the two numbers, one for each vulnerability, before seeing the answer in the next paragraph. Let me make the question precise now. Your agreement is to open 2NT if and only if the hand has 20 or 21 high-card points, is balanced, and has no 5-card major. Play, starting with the opening lead, should be assumed to be double-dummy perfect. Put on your simulation specs and guess two numbers.
When vulnerable, bidding 3NT is two point two six IMPs better than passing, and when not vulnerable, bidding 3NT is zero point eight five better than passing. Now a different question. How useful are the diamond intermediates? What're the two numbers if you change ♦ T9 to ♦ 87?
When vulnerable, 3NT is zero point six nine better than passing; not vulnerable, 3NT is zero point two worse than passing (figures based on 500 random hands). Drastic change, don't you think?
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